Sunday, April 13, 2014

Chronic Sickness In Unemployment......

While the total number of people employed increased by a seemingly impressive half a million, a whopping 83% of those job gains came from temporary workers.

The US labor market is sick. More than five years after the failure of Lehman Brothers, the number of full time employed workers in the US is still 4 million less than in December of 2007.
Economists are rattled by a US labor market that is unable to absorb all the people entering the labor force.

(Rattled Economists should give me a call. I can explain it to them. There are no jobs because every product in every store says “Made in China” Any questions? We will have a quiz tomorrow)
this means that millions of people who joined the national work force were never able to find a job.

(Exactly right. The jobs are gone. They are in China, They are in India. They are in The Phillipeans. They are in Mexico. The companies might be American. They might be flying the American flag in front of their corporate headquarters but the workers are ANYTHING but.)

What makes this so troubling is that young entrants to the labor force who fail to find a job will be less productive for almost their entire working lives. (Yes plus they have mountains of student loan debt. Large mountains.)

In the first few years after people enter the labor force, they enjoy the steepest learning curve. So the average worker who starts his or her career in their mid-twenties has the most to learn and learns the quickest. By the time this worker reaches their early to mid-thirties, the learning curve levels off as they reach their peak earnings and productivity years.

However, if labor market entrants struggle for years to find their first job they are set-back several years in terms of on-the-job skills. So during what should be the worker’s peak earning years either salary or productivity or both fall short due to lack of experience.

This is why rising youth unemployment, those 18-29, is such an eye opener. (blame Corporate America. The same corporate America who says they cannot find qualified people and must have foreign workers. They are responsible for all of this.)

the declining labor force rate has created an additional 1.95 million young adults that are not even counted anymore as “unemployed” by the U.S. Department of Labor.

The current unemployment rate for youngsters aged 18-29 is 16%.
Global corporations are increasingly agnostic to the citizenship and location of their workers and will direct jobs and investment capital to the location with the highest potential return. If Toyota or Microsoft Microsoft find more productive employees in Shanghai and Munchen than in Dallas and Seattle, they will act accordingly. (NOT more productive….Just cheaper)

US corporations just don’t trust this economic recovery. (Really….I wonder why? If they want to know who to blame they should look in the mirror.)
S&P just reported that corporations are hoarding unprecedented levels of cash, but crucial capex is 25% below historical normal levels. Capex is capital expenditures, job creating corporate investment.

From 2011-13: US Corporate Cash Cash Pile Rose to $3 Trillion (Unprecedented levels of cash for corporations bellyaching they can’t hire anyone because they don’t have any money. Please give us tax breaks because we are so poor…..wink, wink)

if US corporations had used a normal, historical use of cash, a stunning $900 billion would have been positioned in job creating investment. (That is OK because Obama spent 800 Billion in stimulus trying to cover up all the money corporate America wasn’t spending. He is such a team player)

In 2007 the participation rate for workers below 20 years of age was 41% but has now dropped below 33%. The unemployment rate in this group is currently 22% vs. around 16% in late 2007. (The Mcdonalds jobs that used to be done by high school kids are now being done by adult workers who have been laid off by corporation. That leaves no jobs for the high school kids. It all trickles down just like Reagan told us. At least the bad stuff does.)

among the more than 10 million people that are unemployed, close to 65% are unemployed for more than 2 weeks. Before the “great recession” only around 30% of the unemployed were out of a job for more than 2 weeks. In those days, a lot of workers decided to resign from their current job to find a better one elsewhere; a sign of a healthy labor market. Today, the majority of unemployed are long-term unemployed.

The end result of the ailments of the US labor market is that fewer workers are financing a growing army of people that are relying on government support in one form or another. The government is taking an increasing portion of the paychecks of this shrinking workforce to finance all these support programs.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrymcdonald/2014/04/04/the-chronic-sickness-of-the-us-labor-market/

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