Thursday, April 15, 2010

The Year Of The Unexpected Anomaly

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2010/04/new_jobless_claims_unexpectedl_3.html?hpid=topnews

"increasing worries that high unemployment will stick around for a long time." Good morning world renowned economists. Welcome to the real world. Nice that you could join us. I always knew eventually they would figure it out. These are smart people after all.......

"Economists suggest the spike in claims could be related to the Easter holiday. (Sure it is) Each week, it seems, there's some sort of anomaly that affects the new jobless claims -- the big February snows, the March snapback from the big February snows, the Easter holiday -- so it's hard to get a good handle on the real jobless picture in the U.S."

It is not hard at all. The jobs are disappearing. They have been disappearing and they will continue to disappear. There is nothing hard to grasp about it at all. Everyone should expect it.
There is no anomaly either. The Easter holiday is NOT an anomaly. It has happened every year for thousands of years. Snow storms in February are also NOT an anomaly. In snows in February every single year. The anomaly is when the rate went down. That was what was hard to explain. Down right bizarre. The fact that it keeps going up week after week should be expected by all. Maybe at some point it will level out. But if people are waiting for some big turnaround I think it will be a long wait.

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