Saturday, July 14, 2012

Iran flexing their muscles‏



War games this month showcased missiles with improved accuracy and firing capabilities

Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards conducted the exercise in the central desert, firing ballistic missiles including a long-range variety meant to deter an Israeli or U.S. attack. The targets were models of foreign military bases, and the stated goal was to show that Iran's missiles can hit Western bases and Israel.

Several Iranian news websites reported Friday that 90 percent of the missiles hit their targets and said this showed their increased accuracy.

Another achievement, the reports said, was Iran's capability of firing multiple missiles within seconds. The media reports said this would create a challenge for the U.S. or Israel to intercept incoming missiles should a war break out.

Iran has a variety of missiles. including a Shahab-3 variant with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) that can reach Israel and southern Europe. The missiles, which can carry a nuclear warhead, are also capable of hitting U.S. bases in the region.
Some of the missiles used during the war games used solid fuel, the reports said, improving the accuracy of the missiles.

"Within 10 minutes, a considerable number of missile were fired at a single target. The achievement, called high firing density, makes it impossible for anti-missile systems to intercept and destroy them. In the end, the target is definitely hit," said a report on irannuc.ir. Translation don’t think your 10 Patriot Missile batteries will protect your bases from the 90 missiles we will be firing at you if you attack us.

The Pentagon released a report June 29 noting significant advances in Iranian missile technology. The report was prepared before the latest Iranian missile tests.
The report to Congress, signed by U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, acknowledged that Iran has improved the accuracy and power of its missiles. Up to now, U.S. reports have downplayed the accuracy and effectiveness of Iran's missiles.

Iranian lawmaker Ismaeil Kowsari, a former Revolutionary Guard commander, said Iran has upgraded its missile deterrence.

"Our missiles are more accurate and lethal than ever," Kowsari told The Associated Press on Friday. "These achievements send clear signals to the West that Iran is a formidable force, making enemies think twice before making any decision to attack us."
Iran's Revolutionary Guard commanders said during the war games that the tests were a "response to the political impoliteness of those who talk about all options being on the table."

This chess match is getting real interesting.  In the 1991 Iraq war Patriot missiles were effective because the Iraqi scud missiles were very inaccurate.  Iraq only launched a small number and even then a couple of lucky shot got through.  If Iran is going to use high numbers of missiles to overcome the Patriots (and they are accurate) that is a real problem. 

The solution is to take out the missiles first and overwhelm the Iranians before they can fire.  Iran is a huge country though and it is not so easy.  Finding mobile scuds in 1991 wasn’t easy either. 

In 2003 the US tried “Shock and Awe” which was suppose to overwhelm Iraq and make them quit.  That didn’t work either and the war went on for 8 years.

There are really no good options.  Do nothing and Iran gets Nuclear weapons, with an often stated goal of wiping Israel off the map.  Attack first and find yourself in a much tougher situation with no way out.  The US has bases all over the region which can now be accurately reached by Iran.  That changes the equation a lot.  Israel can’t really attack and not let the US know because the response could put thousands of US personnel in immediate danger.  There is really not a lot of great options.

If Israel is to be believed and they will not live with a Nuclear Iran then an attack will be coming sooner rather then later.  When (if) that happens all h*ll is going to break loose really quickly.

No comments:

Post a Comment