Friday, April 17, 2015

MH360 is almost found.....definitely....Maybe...Probably not

“The experts are so confident that we’re searching in the right place that they don’t countenance that there’s any other possibilities really,’’ Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss told The Australian yesterday. “And they keep re¬doing the work and keep coming up with the same answers.’’
(They come up with the same answers but they never come up with any plane)
While the strip of seabed near to the so-called seventh arc was considered the area most likely to contain the wreckage, the variability in the analyses used to reach this conclusion means it could be outside this area.
(Wait a second ago there couldn’t be any other possibility, but two paragraphs later there are variability’s and they could be completely wrong.)
The complex analyses of the handshakes, or communication pings, between the plane and an Inmarsat geostationary satellite was combined with assumptions about where the plane turned and how the Boeing 777-200ER kept flying until its fuel was exhausted.
(Assumptions about where the plane turned….. What are those assumptions based on? What if the plane turned 50 miles later? What does that do to their calculations? Why do they assume it flew till it ran out of fuel? What if it didn’t run out of fuel? What if it was crashed an hour before it ran out of Fuel? What does that do to their assumptions and calculations? Seems to me the Indian Ocean is a really big place …….and they don’t really have any idea at all.)
A problem for the searchers included the fact that the analyses generated thousands of possible tracks across a broad area. (Thousands of possible tracks but they are 95% sure they are looking in the right one. All based on nothing.)
The search area of 60,000sq km compared with 17,000sq km for the downed Air France flight 447, which ¬squawked information as it hit problems but still took almost two years to find.
(So this search area is 3.5 times bigger than the France Air search and the France Air flight they had wreckage. This plane they have NOTHING…Not anything at all……But yet are still 95% sure they are correct……OK If they say so.)
“The expert panels all around the world are so convinced that the satellite connections and ¬seventh arc is where it is, they’re talking about basically zero per cent options for anything else.’’
(WOW zero percent chance it could be anywhere else. That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room.
That is true even though there are multiple eye witnesses who say a large, loud, strange plane flew over Maldives on the same night……
But that can’t possibly be anything….. because the Maldives are way far away from where they are 95% sure the plane is. So just discount that idea all together and just keep doing what you are doing. Seems to be working out fine.)

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