Friday, June 13, 2014

The Mess In Iraq.....

To understand the situation in Iraq (and Syria) you need to get to the real issue. 

People throw around terms like “Insurgents”, and “terrorists” but really what you have is Sunni vs Shia. The same battle which has been waged for centuries is still going on. 

George W Bush (and his poor war plan) let the genie out of the bottle, and now it is a disaster.

The extremists….insurgents…..terrorists are found on all sides. Both sides can be hostile to the United States. The United States supports both sides, depending on what country you are talking about.

In Iraq the Sunnis are the minority. Saddam was Sunni and (when he held power) terrorized the Shia population. He gassed his own people (The Shia). Saddam fought an 8 year war with Iran (who are Shia.)

The USA doesn’t like Iran, so in the 80’s the USA supported Saddam.

When US tanks rolled in to Iraq (in 2003) and provided democratic elections, the Shia Majority seized power. Now Maliki (the Shia President) is aligned with Iran (who the USA doesn’t like).

Maliki has been miserable to the Sunni population ever since assuming power. Malaki has prevented Sunni participation in the new government, and abused the Sunni population at every turn. The resentment this caused helped create the new radical insurgency.

A lot of the Sunni’s being marginalized today were formerly in Saddam’s army. They were kicked out by the Americans and are now the “Insurgents”. The reason it looks like they know what they are doing is because they do. Rumsfeld called them “dead enders” but there is no dead end. Just a vacuum created by the exit of US troops.

This new Sunni, (insurgent, terrorist) uprising will result in Iran rejoining the fight. They have done it before, and are starting again. The USA, who spent Hundreds of Billions setting up the Shia government, and training the (now fleeing incompetent) new army, doesn’t want the whole thing to fall apart. So they won’t say much about Iran providing help.

Meanwhile The Iraqi (Sunni) Insurgents are supported by Saudi Arabia (Friend of America) and home of Osama Bin Laden. Sunni Saudi Arabia hates Shia Iran and will do whatever possible to keep Iran out. Saudi Arabia thus far provides more financial support (then military support).

The Sunni insurgents (who are seizing cities in Iraq) are also robbing all the deserted banks (in empty towns) making them very well funded. They could possibly be the most well funded terrorists in the world.

Thanks to all the new Iraqi soldiers walking away (without a fight) they also have acquired all kinds of new (American funded) weapons. A nightmare scenario for Obama.

Today Maliki is begging Obama to get involved. Yet two years ago Obama wanted to leave (some) US troops in Iraq but Maliki said no way. Bet he regrets that now.

Meanwhile in Syria the USA does NOT support The Shia government (of Assad…aligned with Iran) and Supports (tepidly) the Sunny insurgents fighting the government.

Ironically the same “insurgents” the US is against in Iraq…… are literally the same fighters the US supports in Syria. It is now really one giant battle field across two countries. Depending on which country you are in, dictates which side the US supports.

Overall it is a gigantic….colossal….. mess. The reason Obama isn’t doing much is because there isn’t much to do. People say the USA should bomb…… but bomb what? There is nothing to bomb. If Obama isn’t going to put 150K troops back in Iraq (which he is not) then there nothing to do but watch.

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