Thursday, May 15, 2014

Hamas.....

Hamas is the terrorist organization in control of the Gaza Strip. Fatah is the political party in control of the West Bank. 

Hamas and Fatah do not like each other.

Fatah pretends a peace agreement with Israel is possible. They are willing to recognize Israel’s right to exist…… if only Israel would stop building new settlements in the West Bank.

Israel is not willing to stop building them.

Hamas (on the other hand) has no intention of ever recognizing Israel’s right to exist. They want Israel erased from the map, and the Jews driven out.

The problem with Hamas is they have no friends.

The Gaza Strip shares a border with Israel (who hates them). It also shares a border with Egypt (who also hates them).

When Egypt was controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas is an offshoot of The Muslim Brotherhood) Hamas was sitting pretty. They received lots of money and weapons through the Egyptian border.

Once the Egyptian military overthrew the Muslim brotherhood, they also cracked down on the Gaza border. They closed all the smuggling tunnels, and tightly controlled the crossings. They also rounded up hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood members and are threatening executions.

These Egyptian acts have strengthened the Egyptian Israeli relationship (at the expense of Hamas).

The Egyptian crackdown has basically brought Hamas to their knees. Hamas cannot currently make their payroll. Hamas officials are receiving half the pay they are supposed to receive.

At one time Hamas was supported by Iran. Iran would smuggle suitcases of cash through Egypt. But Hamas (who never miss an opportunity to pick the wrong side) decided to support the uprising in Syria (against Assad). This angered Iran (who supports Assad) and the Iranian money dried up. Oops!

Hamas also sent fighters into Syria to help overthrow Assad. Those fighters ended up fighting against Hezbollah Fighters (from Lebanon) funded by Iran. It was one Palestinian terror organization, fighting against another Palestinian terror organization. This also did not please Iran.

One of the reasons the USA is hesitant about arming the Syrian opposition is because they don’t want the weapons to end up with Hamas.

In the end Hamas was the big loser. Israel hates them. Egypt hates them. Syria hates them. Iran hates them. Hezbollah hates them. Oh and Fatah also hates them.

Realizing they have no friends (anywhere) they decided (to survive) they needed to find a friend quick.

Hence why we now see Hamas trying to reconcile with Fatah. They have no other choice.

Fatah figures this is their chance to unify the West Bank and The Gaza Strip. They figure with Hamas weakened they can unify and remain in power.

One of the knocks on Fatah has been they do not represent all Palestinians. This reconciliation effort is hoped to fix that perception. But it is also a tightrope because getting too cozy with Hamas could dry up money flowing to Fatah.

Western countries do not want to be seen supporting terrorist organizations. So Fatah needs to be careful.

If the reconciliation is successful the Palestinians hope more recognition from the United Nations would follow. Then they could bypass Israel altogether on the way to their state. At least that is their hope.

Israel (who wouldn’t stop building settlements when Fatah and Hamas didn’t get along) now blames this attempted reconciliation for why the peace process will be put on hold.

See Israel has no real incentive to change the status quo. The security wall around the West Bank (and Gaza) has prevented terrorists from entering Israel. The Iron Dome missile defense has diminished the effectiveness of Hamas rockets.

Now that the terrorist threat has been diminished there is no real urgency. Unless Iran shows up with a nuclear bomb (which they might) the current situation will not change anytime soon.

Netanyahu has no interest in seeing a Palestinian state. He just wants the current situation to drag on.

The Palestinians are afraid of settling on a bad deal, so this causes them to accept no deal.

The deals that the Palestinians have been offered (over the years) and turned down are much better than anything they will get going forward. The ship keeps sailing and they keep missing it.

The more they have held out for a better deal, the worse their deal has gotten. Their problem is they don’t know when to call it a day. It is like the gambler who stays at the roulette table trying to win back the money they lost. It never works.

But since many Palestinians don’t want a deal (at all) anyway…..they just want Israel to go away….nobody should expect much to change.

A peace deal could easily be reached if all the parties were serious. The problem is none of the parties are serious. The Israelis are not serious. The Palestinians (in Fatah) are not serious. The Palestinians (in Hamas) are not serious.

So it should be no surprise when three parties (who are all not serious) can’t reach their stated goal of peace.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hamas-clears-abbas-gaza-home-unity-push-23712550

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